For the sixth year in a row, Apple will have its very own Black Friday sale. For the third year in a row, we expect to include Apple as a "jeer" in our Black Friday Cheers & Jeers summary. Why? Apple's Black Friday sale always has terrible prices that, at best, offset the cost of sales tax. Last year, Apple's prices were undercut by Amazon and MacMall, and we expect a similarly lackluster performance from Apple this year.
We should also point out that you're likely to see rumors that Apple's Black Friday sale will be fantastic. In both 2009 and 2008, major news outlets reported predictions of huge discounting during Apple's Black Friday sale. Both years, these predictions turned out to be complete rubbish.
Er, wait a second: you get huge national media attention for fabricated Apple predictions? We predict Black Friday iPads for $99! And Verizon iPhones for free!
So, what will you actually see on Black Friday from Apple? You'll see free shipping with no minimum from the Apple Store. (Normally a $49 minimum applies.) Apple's Black Friday sale, such as it is, will be in stores and online, so beat the crowds and skip going to Apple's retail stores. To score a real deal, look to Apple resellers like MacConnection, Amazon, and MacMall for about 5% off Mac prices and stores like Amazon, Walmart, and Best Buy for 10% off iPod prices (including Apple's latest, like the iPod nano with Multi-Touch). Expect no discounts on the iPad or iPhone from anyone, although you may see factory-refurbished models at substantial discounts from Apple's online store or from AT&T.
How we did last year with Apple? We nailed it, predicting Mac prices and most iPod prices within 5% accuracy. ;-)
While we're talking about computers, large capacity hard drives have fallen in price by about 33% since a year ago. We predict that this Black Friday will be a great time to buy that external hard drive you've been keeping your eye on. Expect to find 2TB USB 2.0 external hard drives for $74, which is under 4 cents per GB.
How we did last year with hard drives? We were off by less than $1, or 2%. ;-) We also made predictions on LCD monitors, getting within 7% accuracy for 24" and 10% for 22" LCDs. ;-) However, we have no predictions this year, because external monitors have waned in popularity.
Summary: Black Friday Predictions for Apple and hard drives
- Free shipping no min at Apple Store online
- The newest Apple iPods for 10% off
- iMac and MacBook computers for 5% to 10% off
- No deals on a new iPhone or iPad
- 2TB USB 2.0 External Hard Drive for $74